The playoff field for the 2023 NFL season has been winnowed from eight teams to four. That also means the Super Bowl 58 permutations have been reduced from 16 prior to the divisional round down to a quartet of possible combinations. (And with sincerest apologies to the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – both unexpectedly competitive, fun teams to follow this season – the majority of NFL fans who don’t live near the Gulf Coast won’t miss you all that much. Sorry.)
And while it would have been cool to see the Buffalo Bills finally escape their close-but-no-cigar history … welp, that’s exactly what they didn’t manage to do Sunday night.
Nevertheless, the four potential matchups we’re left to ponder for Feb. 11 in Las Vegas all seem fairly compelling in their own ways. So let’s consider their merits, then – naturally – rank them, from least attractive to most:
4. San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It most definitely wouldn’t be terrible to run back a rematch of Super Bowl 54, which K.C. won, 31-20, in a contest that was far closer than the score indicates. And it might have turned out completely different had then-Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo not overthrown WR Emmanuel Sanders inside of two minutes for what likely would have been a go-ahead TD with K.C. leading 24-20.
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Four years later, surgical Brock Purdy is throwing the passes for San Francisco, RB Christian McCaffrey is the best multi-dimensional non-quarterback in the league, and WR Brandon Aiyuk has developed into another bona fide weapon the Chiefs didn’t have to account for back in those pre-pandemic days. Still, hard to gloss over the fact that QB Patrick Mahomes and HC Andy Reid are 3-0 against 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan with an average margin of victory of 14.3 points.
3. Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens
Novelty is usually nifty. Detroit is one of four NFL teams that has never played on Super Sunday. The same goes for Ravens quarterback and presumed league MVP Lamar Jackson. But novelty can only sustain for so long. We’ve already seen Jackson go 20-1 against NFC teams during his six-year career. Far more concerning was that Week 7 game at M&T Bank Stadium, when Baltimore slayed the Lions, 38-6.
Sure, a rematch at a neutral site – plus the added familiarity Detroit would have with the Ravens, not to mention the extra week to prepare – would almost certainly equate to a closer game. Still, hard to envision the Lions keeping pace for four quarters in something that feels like it would end with a 33-23 Baltimore win or some such.
2. San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Few would argue these were the two best teams in the league in 2023. However, many remain keenly aware of that Christmas night massacre in Santa Clara, when the Ravens took the Niners to the woodshed 33-19 in their own building. But is Purdy, who threw four INTs in that debacle yet has never served up more than two in any of his other 24 (usually efficient) NFL starts – and has zero career postseason picks – going to play that badly again?
And did you remember that all-universe San Francisco LT Trent Williams missed more than half the game with a groin injury? Couldn’t Shanahan and a defense loaded with predators make enough adjustments to significantly close – and quite possibly erase – the gap? (And wouldn’t it also be fun to dissect the merits of these teams for two weeks rather than obsess over the Harbaugh brothers, as happened 11 years ago when these clubs collided in Super Bowl 47? Yesss …)
1. Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
How appropriate would it be to bookend the first game of the season, when the Lions upset the reigning champion Chiefs, 21-20, on Sept. 7 at Arrowhead Stadium, with a Super Bowl rematch? And, oh, the storylines. Detroit trying to win its first Lombardi Trophy and end a championship drought that extends to 1957. Kansas City attempting to pull off the first Super Bowl repeat since the 2004 New England Patriots. Perhaps Super Sunday redemption for Lions QB Jared Goff, whose dreadful performance in Super Bowl 53 while with the Los Angeles Rams helped get him run out of town two years later. But he’d be facing a K.C. squad seeking a third championship in five seasons, which would surely cement them as the NFL’s first post-Pats dynasty.
And while the Lions already have that Chiefs notch in their collective belt, good time to recall that Kansas City All-Pros Chris Jones (holdout) and Travis Kelce (hyperextended knee) didn’t play in Week 1. Lastly – but not leastly – gotta acknowledge the Swifties. But it seems unlikely (though possible) you, uh, “purists” will be bombarded with shots from Taylor Swift’s suite – if Kelce’s Chiefs make it this far – given she’s scheduled to perform during an Eras Tour stop in Tokyo on Feb. 10.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.